The NYC Memo

Can Broadcom Beat the AI Hunger Games at Q1 FY2026 Earnings?

The NYC Memo Research — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Last Wednesday, NVIDIA reported fourth-quarter revenue of $68.1 billion, up 73% year over year. It beat earnings, beat guidance — and still watched $260 billion of market capitalization evaporate by Thursday morning as the stock fell 5.5%. By any traditional measure, it was a stellar quarter. The market sold it anyway.

Broadcom now steps into this backdrop, reporting fiscal Q1 2026 results on Wednesday, March 4, after market close. The stock finished Monday at $318.82, down 22.7% from its 52-week high of $412.18. Broadcom has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of its last eleven quarterly reports. Yet seven of those eleven produced negative stock reactions, all following earnings beats. The current at-the-money straddle implies an 8.6% move, exactly matching the median but falling roughly three percentage points below the 11.6% historical average.

Will DoorDash (DASH) Q4 Earnings Lift Sentiment as Shares Sit at a 52-Week Low?

The NYC Memo Research — Fri, 14 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT

DoorDash will report fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results Wednesday after the close, with options markets pricing a 13.4% post-announcement move as investors assess the implications of elevated investment spending.

Shares closed Friday at $160.34, marking a 52-week low and a 43% decline from the October high of $281.74. Over the past 11 quarters, DoorDash has beaten estimates 10 times and missed once. Despite this record, the average post-earnings move following a beat has been +0.1%, while the single miss produced a +6.8% gain. Forward commentary has had greater influence on price action than headline earnings results.

When Beating Isn't Enough: The Earnings Paradox Reshaping Big Tech

The NYC Memo Research — Wed, 11 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT

A structural shift is underway in U.S. equity markets. Across the Magnificent Seven, earnings beats are no longer reliable catalysts for upside. The relationship between exceeding consensus expectations and positive price reaction has weakened materially, and in several cases inverted.

Alphabet has beaten estimates in 11 consecutive quarters. Its most recent report exceeded consensus by $0.18, yet the stock declined 5%. Microsoft beat by $0.22 but triggered a 10.5% selloff. Four of six companies were punished or ignored despite beating expectations. Markets have transitioned from rewarding AI potential to demanding AI returns.

Will Shopify's Earnings Trigger Another Outsized Move?

The NYC Memo Research — Sun, 08 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT

As Shopify (SHOP) prepares to report earnings on February 11, options markets are bracing for another large post-earnings swing, consistent with the stock's history of sharp reactions around results. At-the-money options currently imply a move of approximately 14.3 percent, below Shopify's historical average earnings move of 18.2 percent, suggesting that options markets may be underpricing the magnitude of potential volatility.

Shopify enters the earnings release after a sharp decline in share price. The stock is trading near $112, down roughly 30 percent from levels seen immediately after the prior quarter's earnings, and more than 37 percent below its 52-week high.

Will Robinhood (HOOD) See a Surprise Move After Earnings?

The NYC Memo Research — Sun, 08 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT

As Robinhood Markets (HOOD) prepares to report earnings on February 10, options markets are pricing in a post-earnings move that exceeds the company's historical norm. At-the-money options currently imply a move of approximately 12.4 percent, compared with an average historical earnings move of 9.6 percent.

Robinhood enters the earnings event following a volatile period for the stock. Shares are trading near $82.82, well below the $152.46 52-week high, after a prolonged drawdown that has weighed on sentiment despite intermittent rallies.

Are Options Pricing Elevated Earnings Risk for Amazon?

The NYC Memo Research — Tue, 04 Feb 2026 00:00:00 GMT

As Amazon prepares to report earnings on Thursday, options markets are pricing in a relatively large post-earnings move compared with recent history, reflecting heightened uncertainty rather than a definitive view on outcomes. At-the-money options imply an 8.6 percent swing in either direction, which is higher than Amazon's average historical earnings move.

The divergence between implied and realized volatility comes at a fragile moment for technology stocks, which have sold off sharply this week amid concerns over AI infrastructure costs, margin pressure, and rising cross-asset correlations.